Bewerkt 17 juli 2018

Leuk dat je deze pagina op onze website uit 2014 bezoekt.

Dat komt waarschijnlijk omdat je de rubriek ‘Wat nu weer baas’, ‘Blijven doen waar je goed in bent is nog steeds het beste advies’, van Richard Engelfriet via (de website of App van) het Algemeen Dagblad vandaag hebt gelezen. Richard gaat vandaag in op het thema ‘disruptive innovation’. Hij gebruikt uit onze presentatie die we in 2014 gaven, voorbeelden van Kodak (een belangrijke humoristische slotzin van onze presentatie was destijds “pas op voor je eigen Kodak-momentje”. Maar ook de voorbeelden van WhatsApp en Netflix die we toen gebruikten komen in de rubriek van Richard voorbij.

Wij maken als Fountainheads nog steeds verhalen (ook in het engels). En we zijn het aan onze ‘stand’ van Trendverkenners verplicht om elke keer weer om ons heen te kijken naar nieuwe voorbeelden en inzichten. We schetsen daarbij geen beeld van de (jouw) toekomst (of die van je bedrijf) maar geven een actueel overzicht van technologische ontwikkelingen en (maatschappelijke) trends die van invloed (kunnen ) zijn op je markt, bedrijf, organisatie, je werk en/of je privé-leven.

Meer weten? Neem vooral een kijkje op onze website of kijk een van onze vlogs en video’s (van presentaties).  Weten wat anderen van onze presentaties en inzichten vinden? Klik hier.

Oorspronkelijke blog uit 2014

Presentation (slides):

We live in a world of constant change and it’s an ongoing process. These are the trends you must know about as an entrepreneur, ceo or manager.

You must know about 3D printing, Open Source economy, Quantified Self, and so on and so on. We highlight a few in our session

Everything is changing even statements are subject to change;

If you do today what you did yesterday, then tomorrow you will get what you got today

This statement is no longer true.

Because if you do today what you did yesterday than tomorrow your out-of-business.

I’ll take you to the year 2040, the year in which the technological singularity is a fact. I hear you thinking. Yeah right. That’s the moment where man and machine are interlinked.

We will have added computer intelligence and memory to our brains

But who can tell this better than Ray Kurzweil himself

Video

He’s an inventor at Google

You think that’s Creepy? Then you should know about Google plans. They want to solve death.

In 2013 they founded the company Calico with the purpose to solve death. The previous chairman of the Board of Apple is the CEO of Calico.

It’s a serious game.

At the other end of the world there is Dimitri Itskov a Russian billionaire who want to solve death at another level. He tries to find our self in our body and tries to put that into data so you can live forever in virtual worlds.

Well that’s all very far into the future. Closer to home

What could happen in about 3 to 5 years? That is where we as Fountainheads focus on. Wim and I love to learn from the future and translate it into stories for business opportunities

I’m Jan-Henk Bouman co-founder of three companies and one p2p movement. My main focus is the cooperation with Wim in Fountainheads and the peer-2-peer movement Permanent Beta. In PB we work on accelerating social innovation with no money and no hassle on a variety of subjects.

Trend watchers are often on stage to predict the future,

But the best predictors of the future are the scenario writers of Hollywood

Currently, it seems that every SF movie comes in our daily lives

Google Glass has entered the market this year.

And now the police in Dubai are using it in their daily job.

This is the Replicator and we now have it in real life.

Can the 3D Food Printer do the same or more than the Food Replicator in Star Trek?

Are we already living in the Matrix?

And do you want to take the blue pill, the red pill or soon the food pill

We are used to look from the past to the future.

But the toys from the past are no longer the basics for the future.

There is a trend going on. The trend is that you can no longer forecast from the past, you must be connected to the future

We call that BackCasting. Go Back to The Future and look back to the present

If you think we are still in a crisis, then you’re looking into the wrong direction. A crisis = painfully short period. Is 7 years is a short period? It’s painful for many. But it isn’t short and there’s still some coming. We are, according to Jan Rotmans, not in era of change, but in a change of eras.

Apple currently earns 70% of its sales with products that they did not have five years ago.

Gerd Leonhard predicts that companies in 2018 make 60-80% of their turnover with products and services that are not yet here

How can you prepare for such a future?

Look at the clever boys and girls in garage boxes

They do the disruption; it’s a total mind shift.

You’d better be connected with them

Occulus Rift went in 18 months from nothing to $ 2 billion.

WhatsApp went in 4 years from nothing to $ 19 billion

Whatsapp destroyed the texting market

These were all guys who started in a garage boxes like Steve Jobs once.

With how many garage boxes are you connected?

If computer guys enter your market then they will disrupt everything

The Google driverless car is not a car but full robot sensors. The sensors makes 1.2 million measurements per second and everything is stored. And that creates Big Data from the public domain

Imagine what that means for privacy, as everything is stored

All the car brands are going to SV to connect themself with the garage boxes. Google uses the car for their next step

The company that designed the world’s simplest home page also decided to lose the mirrors, the backseat, the glove compartment and the stereo.

Big data is the new oil. We now generate more data than we did from the dawn of history until 2003. Big data is changing everything

Take Watson. The super computer from IBM. His algorithm uses big data and is self-learning. In 2011 he crushed the best Jeopardy players of history

The future looks foggy. But you have to move. You have to take the first steps, because if you move from A to B then you get a view of C

You have to discover your own Great Unknown. There’s only one thing left;

‘Adapt or Die’

It sounds a bit philosophic Did you ever had a fireplace conversation about the universe; Infinite; Ever expanding; Edge;

Space Spaceship What’s behind the edge

Closer to ourselves

Moving picture ”Fantastic Voyage” (1966 Science Fiction);

Spaceship;

Bloodstream or Vein; Science and healthcare; Cure and care

And yes nowadays we are able to deliver a drug at exactly the point it should work; it fights malignant cells and leaves healthy ones alone

Is healthcare about drugs or medicine or other forms of technology?

Sleep problems; Sleep disorder

Sleep problem is more complex than what we think?

Sleep clinic, -hospital or -center;

Paste and attach sensors and technology; 48 hours Observation;

Diagnosis & terrible expensive invoice for health insurance this is what makes health insurance priceless

Light sleep, heavy sleep and REM sleep;

Together with …. Quantified Self Make your one Great Unknown visible

Extra benefit Wake up at the perfect moment

It’s not the biggest, the most rich, strongest or most powerful organization

It’s the fittest, the most adaptive to change

Managing director Media Plaza

Managing director Living Tomorrow

Initiator and shareholder of natural or woodland burial ground

Partner in Fountainheads

If you go back to nature I already said that It’s not the biggest, the most rich, strongest or even most powerful It’s the fittest, the most adaptive

It’s like two English tourists on holidays in Africa on the Savannah

You don’t want to be the Dodo or your market

You don’t want to go bankrupt

You don’t want to be the loser in your sector

Change is the only constant factor

The only difference with the past is … it is going fast, very fast

We live in the era of exponential technological growth

It is like a tsunami you know how to swim and you are accustomed to touch water and put your skin into the game

But after you grasp for air after the first wave of change immediately the second wave floods over you

If innovation needs adaptive behavior and creative thinking it helps to think ….

These are ’open doors’ but so often that is the reason why these rules are mostly ignored or neglected

You have to behave groundbreaking and look over the borders of your own company and market sector

You should connect yourself with other people who are definitely not the same kind of people as you are and think

It helps if you are able to color outside the lines

You have to change the playing field

You have to reset the rules of the game

You should have a hand in the game to find new ways to win it

The new rules must be winsome, sympathetic

And as an entrepreneur or entrepreneurial people it is obvious that you should take risks

More often projects fail

But failures help you to discover your destiny

Innovation is a container concept

It is often entangled by invention people are confused by these two words but is very important to understand the difference

Innovation is not just the idea; the invention of a breakthrough technology; mathematical proof; scientific discovery

These are building block or fuel for innovation

But you have to mix it with decisiveness and perseverance

The difference between these two words can be clearly explained by the Kodak business case

The inference of Kodak is enormous

A Kodak; Kodak moment

Kodak had the most sophisticated R&D centers

In the mid 70’s they invented the first digital camera

CEO turn out to be the CIK Chief Idea Killer

In love with roll of films, photo print machines, photo paper

They even forgot about Moore’s Law

They refuse to bring their ’cash cows’ to the slaughterhouse

At one day you are the market leader the next day you are bankrupt

It is strange Individual people are highly adaptive

But a grow of this kind of adaptive species turn the world around Then lack of adaptiveness seems to grow exponential

Organisations hardly think in terms of transformation

If a caterpillar is overfed after spring it thinks this is the end The individual can hardly believe that after a few days or weeks it will become a butterfly

No coach builder or -workshop worried about unemployment Even horses If they talk to each other were not afraid of loosing their job Only one or two coach builders made it to a carmaker with factories all over the planet

Even horses laughed about the idea that they would be unemployed in the nearby future

Horseless carriage syndrome

People in companies and organisations often runs to the company lawyers or big layers firms They dig trenches to protect what they have and to fight change

This story isn’t only about Kodak

Music industry thought lessons but nobody listens Blendle

3 guys Brian, Nathan and Joe in the Bay area

They had a job after they were graduated but earned too little money to pay all the bills

On social media there was a request for hotelaccomodation because everything was sold out

They had to spare rooms in their apartment

We are not the only ones with spare capacity

Second home; Boats; extra room after the children left elderly house

And they don’t own any property themselves

This story isn’t only about Kodak If political influencers and lobbyists knock on the door

One-day renewable energy in Denmark They produces more than they need

We need people who are able to look in a different way to the world

People that see new possibilities

We are on a quest for new DNA combination within the company DNA that supports an open mind that connects the company with other creative thinkers and the future possibilities

We have to look in other directions; Act different; Work different

Video

In Silicon Valley this is one of the most important slogans

Then the question is. Are you Darwin or Darwout?

Can you adapt to the changing circumstances?

And how do you do that?

In a previous era,

There were inventors who did their inventions on their own.

Nowadays the world is connected, we live in a network society where all knowledge is shared.

Inventions: we do it together.

The Open source economics and the Peer-to-Peer economy ensure that all the knowledge is democratized. Let me explain this world with the pyramid model.

You know this model of hierarchy? There are several levels in such companies.

Imagine that this is Glaxo Smith Kline a big pharma company. At the bottom a scientist works hard every day trying to invent a drug for us so that we live longer or with less pain. He or she has the EUREKA moment. Yes I have the solution for a disease I can help 800k to 1mio people. So, he or she runs to the next level to the manager.

He is happy because his team has the solution. First he runs to the patent agency. Because he wants to protect his invention. He wants to hold the invention to his heart because they did all the investments and they need the profit.

With the patent under his arm he goes up to his manager and the CEO. They wait to put it directly on the market because over two years the disease is on his top and they’ll earn more money.

In the pharma industry it is not about us; it’s about money.

In this hyper connected world you don’t have to wait you can do everything in DIY And DIT communities. And so the passionate people share their knowledge freely because they want to contribute to a better and more open world. In that world the innovation goes much faster than in this world. There are more smart people outside your organization than inside so you’d better connect your organization with the outside world. The Open Source started in de SW world and it is now coming tot the hardware world.

And also in the medicine world. India for example has 1,2 billion people within their borders. If they all have to pay the licensing fee, their budget for healthcare runs fast to zero. They are investing in the Open Source medicine world.

The Open Source Pharma movement shouts out loud that all the big pharma’s should share their knowledge for speeding up the search for Ebola medicines and vaccines.

The CEO of GSK has taken a big step towards the OS world by sharing a part of its library. It’s the first tiny step.

So knowledge is democratized and everywhere and freely accessible.

Young talents like Jack Andraka can change the world because. They look with fresh eyes to all information and see new things. Jack Andraka. A 15-year-old boy. He lost his favorite uncle to the disease pancreatic cancer. He got so frustrated. On the one hand because he lost his uncle but on the other hand, pancreatic cancer that cannot be predicted. His uncle went to the doctor, and three months later he died. This challenged Jack. He has searched the entire Internet for information. He investigated Google and Wikipedia.

And there was his “eureka moment.” He had discovered that if you have a particular combination of proteins in your blood, it’s an indication of you getting pancreatic cancer. And if you can predict this, you can solve it in 98% of cases but if you pancreatic cancer in 98% of cases you die. So a fantastic discover. With great enthusiasm about his discovery Jack mailed a professor, and another one and another one and to his surprise no one was interested in his story. He had to send 200 e-mails to get a bite.

In the lab of Professor Jack developed a kind of litmus test. You know it from chemistry lessons, a little slip of paper you put in liquid and changes color. So if you put a drop of blood on this litmus paper it then measures the combination of proteins. It is a breakthrough and Jack has won numerous awards. But actually all the professors should be ashamed. First, because they have exactly the same knowledge as Jack. And second, that this seated “power” is not open to new eyes and insights of talented explorers looking for ‘The Great Unknown’

Elon Musk makes his patent available for the Open Source World. So they can speed up innovation

This is a trend that will demonetize a lot of markets

This is the ASCI Red Supercomputer it saw the light in 1996 for the costs of $ 55 million. You needed a big office to store it. And now the PS4 has more computing power

Do you know what this pictures means?

It’s the smartphone. The smartphone had dematerialized the photo camera, the watch, the Walkman, the laptop and so on and so on.

We were in Baarn a little village in the middle of Holland. Where a small business entrepreneur challenged us.

He said; Nice story Wim and Jan-Henk but can you find some dematerialized examples for my business. You have showed a lot examples about big companies and I want to know what trends can affect my company.

He has a company that delivers Intensive care soft- and hardware to hospitals. We did some research and found this interview….

Video

In the first months of this year there were al lot of headlines about the subject:

Will Robots steal our Jobs?

In the first months of this year there were al lot of headlines about the subject:

Will Robots steal our Jobs?

The conclusion is given by a clip from a popular YouTube video ‘Humans need not apply’

In the first months of this year there were al lot of headlines about the subject:

Will Robots steel our Jobs?

So my last story is about the 3D printer. We have one at Permanent Beta. And we printed these glasses. We searched for a 3D model online and we printed it.

It’s a wonderful process, layer by layer the glasses came out of nothing.

But now I have glasses without glasses. So I can measure my eyes with an app.

And I can send the results to brillen24.nl and the next week I have my glasses. I can easily print glasses in a variety of colors and can simply exchange my glasses

What kind of business effect does this have?

Normally a designer went to an optician and the consumer went to the shop.

Nowadays the designer goes directly to the consumer.

Internet and technology are cutting out the middleman

So our wrap up of this hour of inspiration comes from

Mister Singularity University himself

Peter Diamandis

Video

Thus, Step out of your vertical silos and connect yourself with the knowledge around you.

By a different look you see more, connect the knowledge of your internal organization with the outside world. In closing I want to share a quote from Deepak Chopra with you.

Information becomes wisdom if you add time, energy, intention and attention to it.

Take this day to do it differently tomorrow.

And beware of your own Kodak moment.